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dc.contributor.authorAnderson, D.es_ES
dc.contributor.authorRueda Zamora, Ana Cristinaes_ES
dc.contributor.authorCagigal Gil, Lauraes_ES
dc.contributor.authorÁlvarez Antolínez, José Antonioes_ES
dc.contributor.authorMéndez Incera, Fernando Javier es_ES
dc.contributor.authorRuggiero, P.es_ES
dc.contributor.otherUniversidad de Cantabriaes_ES
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-30T15:16:22Z
dc.date.available2020-06-11T02:45:13Z
dc.date.issued2019-12-10es_ES
dc.identifier.issn2169-9275es_ES
dc.identifier.issn2169-9291es_ES
dc.identifier.issn0148-0227es_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10902/18009
dc.description.abstractRising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run‐up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea‐state parameters associated with the present‐day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto‐regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea‐state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large‐scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century.es_ES
dc.format.extent26 p.es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sonses_ES
dc.rights©American Geophysical Union. Anderson, D., Rueda, A., Cagigal, L.,Antolinez, J. A. A., Mendez, F. J., & Ruggiero, P. (2019). Time-varying emulator for short and long-term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015312es_ES
dc.sourceJournal of Geophysical Research. Oceans Volume124, Issue12 December 2019 Pages 9209-9234es_ES
dc.titleTime-Varying Emulator for Short and Long-Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potentiales_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.relation.publisherVersionhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JC015312es_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccesses_ES
dc.identifier.DOI10.1029/2019JC015312es_ES
dc.type.versionpublishedVersiones_ES


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