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dc.contributor.authorGarcía Manzanas, Rodrigo 
dc.contributor.authorBrands, Swen Franz
dc.contributor.authorSan Martín Segura, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorLucero, Anthony Joseph
dc.contributor.authorLimbo, Carlo A.
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
dc.contributor.otherUniversidad de Cantabriaes_ES
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-05T13:42:23Z
dc.date.available2019-12-05T13:42:23Z
dc.date.issued2015-05-12
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.issn1520-0442
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10902/17406
dc.description.abstractThis work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a generalized linear model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested separately with two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) using a cross-validation scheme over the period 1981–2000. When the observed and downscaled time series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal–bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a global climate model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to “delta-change” estimates differing by up to 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is an important contributor to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections and, consequently, should be treated with as much care as other better-known sources of uncertainty (e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method). Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the model output statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors are grateful to the free distribution of the ECMWF ERA-Interim (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim), JMA JRA-25 (http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-25/index_en.html), and MPI-ECHAM5 data (http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=ENSEMBLES_MPEH5_SRA1B_3_D) and acknowledge PAGASA for the observational data provided. This study was supported by the EU projects QWeCI and SPECS, funded by the European Commission through the Seventh Framework Programme for Research under Grant Agreements 243964 and 308378, respectively. RM also acknowledges the EU project EUPORIAS, funded by the European Commission through the Seventh Framework Programme for Research under Grant Agreement 308291. SB is grateful to the CSIC-JAE-Predoc Program for financial support.es_ES
dc.format.extent14 p.es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyes_ES
dc.rights© 2015 American Meteorological Society. AMS´s Full Copyright Notice: https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/authors/journal-and-bams-authors/author-resources/copyright-information/copyright-policy/*
dc.sourceJournal of Climate, 2015, 28(10), 4171-4184es_ES
dc.subject.otherClimate changees_ES
dc.subject.otherStatistical techniqueses_ES
dc.subject.otherReanalysis dataes_ES
dc.titleStatistical downscaling in the tropics can be sensitive to reanalysis choice: A case study for precipitation in the Philippineses_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.relation.publisherVersionhttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00331.1es_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccesses_ES
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308291/EU/EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale/EUPORIAS/es_ES
dc.identifier.DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00331.1
dc.type.versionpublishedVersiones_ES


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