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    Assessing the skill of precipitation and temperature seasonal forecasts in Spain: windows of opportunity related to ENSO events

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    Identificadores
    URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10902/1631
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2824.1
    ISSN: 1520-0442
    ISSN: 0894-8755
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    Author
    Frías Domínguez, María DoloresAutoridad Unican; Herrera García, SixtoAutoridad Unican; Cofiño González, Antonio SantiagoAutoridad Unican; Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel
    Date
    2010-01-15
    Derechos
    © Copyright [2010] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.
    Publicado en
    Journal of Climate, 2010, 23(2), 209–220.
    Publisher
    American Meteorological Society
    Enlace a la publicación
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2824.1
    Abstract:
    1. The skill of state-of-the-art operational seasonal forecast models in extratropical latitudes is assessed using a multimodel ensemble from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonalto- Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. In particular, probabilistic forecasts of surface precipitation and maximum temperature in Spain are analyzed using a high-resolution observation gridded dataset (Spain02). To this aim, a simple statistical test based on the observed and predicted tercile anomalies is used. First, the whole period 1960–2000 is considered and it is shown that the only significant skill is found for dry events in autumn. Then, the influence of ENSO events as a potential source of conditional predictability is studied and the validation to strong La Niña or El Niño periods is restricted. Skillful seasonal predictions are found in partial agreement with the observed teleconnections derived from the historical records. On the one hand, predictability is found in spring related to El Niño events for dry events over the south and the Mediterranean coast and for hot events in the southeast areas. In contrast, La Niña drives predictability in winter for dry events over the western part and for hot events in summer over the south and the Mediterranean coast. This study considers both the direct model outputs and the postprocessed predictions obtained using a statistical downscaling method based on analogs. In general, the use of the downscaling method outperforms the direct output for precipitation, whereas in the case of the temperature no improvement is obtained.
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    • D20 Artículos [328]
    • D52 Artículos [631]

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    UNIVERSIDAD DE CANTABRIA

    Repositorio realizado por la Biblioteca Universitaria utilizando DSpace software
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Metadatos sujetos a:licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento 3.0 España