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dc.contributor.authorTurco, Marco
dc.contributor.authorRosa Cánovas, Juan José
dc.contributor.authorBedía Jiménez, Joaquín
dc.contributor.authorJerez, Sonia
dc.contributor.authorMontávez, Juan Pedro
dc.contributor.authorLlasat, Maria Carmen
dc.contributor.authorProvenzale, Antonello
dc.contributor.otherUniversidad de Cantabriaes_ES
dc.description.abstractThe observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications of climate-fire relationships under changed climatic conditions owing to productivity alterations. We found that such modifications could be beneficial, roughly halving the fire-intensifying signals. In any case, the burned area is robustly projected to increase. The higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burned area, ranging from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios. Our results indicate that significant benefits would be obtained if warming were limited to well below 2 °C.es_ES
dc.format.extent9 p.es_ES
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupes_ES
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationales_ES
dc.sourceNature Communications (2018) 9:3821es_ES
dc.titleExacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire modelses_ES

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Attribution 4.0 InternationalExcept where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International