A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)
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AuthorÁlvarez Antolínez, José Antonio; Méndez Incera, Fernando Javier; Camus Braña, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González Rodríguez, Ernesto Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick
Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model.
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