The interannual variability of global burned area is mostly explained by climatic drivers

Abstract

Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global?scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year-to-year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns in the dependence of BA variability on antecedent and concurrent weather conditions, highlighting where BA is mostly influenced by either FWI or SPEI and where the combined effect of both indicators must be considered. Our findings indicate that same-season weather conditions have a more pronounced relationship with BA across various ecoregions, particularly in climatologically wetter areas. Additionally, we note that BA is also significantly associated with periods of antecedent wetness and coolness, with this association being especially evident in more arid ecoregions. About 60% of the interannual variations in BA can be explained by climatic variability in a large fraction (-77%) of the world's burnable regions.