Landslide risk modeling: an experience in northern Spain

Abstract

This work presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning developed in northern Spain. The proposed method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models expressing the expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. Landslide risk models obtained are useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost-effective. They allow identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vul-nerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEIA) of land use plans. Results show that the proposed approach and the formulated hypothesis are basically correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given period.