Predicción eficiente de la hidrodinámica de la zona de rompientes en el clima multimodal de las islas del Pacífico

Abstract

Given the growing coastal threat from climate change, it is crucial to have the right tools for fast and accurate prediction of nearshore hydrodynamics, enabling improved flood prevention and management. Coral atolls and low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of storms and rising sea levels. This thesis proposes innovative hybrid methods for downscaling regional or global spectral wave data to the coast, considering the wave climate multimodality of these settings. The developed methods combine advanced statistical tools with high-fidelity numerical models and have been validated across multiple islands and idealized coral reef profiles. The downscaling framework offers flexibility in addressing a range of temporal scale forcings, including the downscaling of short-term forecasts, multi-decadal historical time series, or long-term future projections