Are we underestimating the risk of coastal flooding in Europe? The relevance of critical infrastructure

Abstract

The effects of climate change imply an increase in the risk levels due to coastal flooding. These areas present a high concentration of population and economic activity. The failure of critical infrastructures (CI) serving these communities can have significant impacts on these sectors. This study aims to analyze the risk and its future evolution due to climate change in coastal areas, considering the increased impact that the population would experience if the CI (of the energy or water and waste treatment sectors) were affected by coastal flooding. The methodology used has made it possible to analyze the risk of the Functional Urban Areas (FUA) of the European coasts, identifying the areas in which the level of risk to the population is significantly underestimated. In some of these areas and scenarios, the population affected by coastal flooding if the failure of the CI occurs would be up to 4.5 times higher than what is estimated if only their direct impact is considered.