Efectos económicos regionales de la COVID-19 en los autónomos: El caso de Cantabria

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar y estimar los efectos que la crisis sanitaria desatada por la enfermedad COVID-19 tendrá sobre los trabajadores autónomos en la Comunidad Autónoma de Cantabria a través de la simulación de tres posibles escenarios de contingencia (base, favorable y adverso). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que, si los trabajadores autónomos afectados por las caídas de actividad económica se diesen de baja en la Seguridad Social, esto equivaldría a una caída anual de afiliación estimada en un 2,95% en el escenario base, un 0,43% en el favorable y un 4,48% en el caso más desfavorable.

The economic crisis that, as a consequence of the health pandemic, has been unleashed, will affect to a greater extent the weakest groups of our labour market. In this regard, self-employed workers may face a particularly dramatic situation. Thus, due to the lock down measures established to mitigate the advance of the coronavirus, at this time of uncertainty, millions of workers in general, and self-employed in particular, have had to radically reduce their economic activity, paralyzing numerous projects and/or jobs. Consequently, their income has been suddenly and indefinitely reduced. Given these circumstances, at the present time, it is especially relevant to analyse the effects that COVID-19 is generating on employment and, more particularly, on the group of self-employed workers. Therefore, the objective of this work is to analyse and estimate the effects that the health crisis unleashed by the disease COVID-19 might have on self-employed workers in the Autonomous Community of Cantabria through the simulation of three possible contingency scenarios: base, favourable and adverse.