Evacuation management system for major disasters

Abstract

Predicting and understanding mass evacuations are important factors in disaster management and response. Current modelling approaches are useful for planning but lack of real-time capabilities to help informed decisions as the disaster event evolves. To address this challenge, a real-time Evacuation Management System (EMS) is proposed here, following a stochastic approach and combining classical models of low complexity but high reliability. The EMS computes optimal assembly points and shelters and the related network of evacuation routes using GIS-based traffic, pedestrian and routing models including damaged assets or impassable areas. To test the proper operation performances of the EMS, we conducted a case study for the Gran Canaria wildfire