Labor Force Participation and Retirement of Spanish Older Men: Trends and Prospects

Abstract

We report a recent reversal in the steep trend towards lower participation rates of Spanish older men. An analysis of participation rates conditional on age and education reveals that the upturn in the aggregate participation rate of men in ages 55-64 is the result of positive behavioral and composition effects. Our projections predict that the joint composition effect of age and education will contribute an increase of up to 4.5 percentage points to the aggregate participation rate of 55-64 year olds by the year 2020. Non ? participation is an absorbing state for older men. Thus, lower participation rates of older men reflect a tendency towards earlier retirement. We confirm that transition rates to early retirement have declined during the current expansion.