On the use of stochastic simulations to explore the impact of human parameters on mass public shooting attacks

Abstract

A variety of individuals are likely to be involved in mass shooting attacks. However, the potential effect of people characteristics and response in such situations remains unclear. To address this issue, here we use a new stochastic model to identify patterns that maximize the survival probability and minimize the effectiveness of the shooter. As expected, while survival rates increase when people move fast (since they become a more difficult target to hit and their exposition time is reduced), chances of surviving decrease with non-escaping behaviours. We also found that densely occupied enclosures result in more casualties than sparsely occupied ones, however, casualties at high densities represent a smaller proportion of the individuals involved. Interestingly, even though the shooter effectiveness increases as the crowd becomes denser, so does too the survival probability overall. These findings challenge our current understanding of the impact of human parameters on mass shooting attacks.