Clustering methods for statistical downscaling in short-range weather forecasts

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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10902/1869
ISSN: 1520-0493
ISSN: 0027-0644
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Autoría
Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel; Cofiño González, Antonio SantiagoAutoridad Unican; Cano, R.; Rodríguez Díaz, Miguel ÁngelAutoridad Unican
Fecha
2004-09
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© Copyright [2004] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.
Publicado en
Monthly Weather Review, 2004, 132(9), 2169–2183
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American Meteorological Society
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Resumen/Abstract
In this paper an application of clustering algorithms for statistical downscaling in short-range weather forecasts is presented. The advantages of this technique compared with standard nearest-neighbors analog methods are described both in terms of computational efficiency and forecast skill. Some validation results of daily precipitation and maximum wind speed operative downscaling (lead time 1–5 days) on a network of 100 stations in the Iberian Peninsula are reported for the period 1998–99. These results indicate that the weighting clustering method introduced in this paper clearly outperforms standard analog techniques for infrequent, or extreme, events (precipitation > 20 mm; wind > 80 km h−1). Outputs of an operative circulation model on different local-area or large-scale grids are considered to characterize the atmospheric circulation patterns, and the skill of both alternatives is compared.
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