Metodología para el análisis del efecto del cambio climático en la inundación costera: aplicación a Asturias

Abstract

One of the main threats to coastal systems and low-lying areas around the world is increasing floo-ding due to the effects of climate change, mainly due to sea-level rise. A regional-scale ?O (100 km)?methodology to analyze the impact of coastal flooding is herein presented. The procedure combineshigh-resolution historical databases and projections of marine dynamics. Exposure is well representedover a high-resolution digital terrain model deeply improved including coastal defences. An empiricalparameterization of the run-up that results from wave breaking is calibrated with field data, and furtherimproved to evaluate flooding in ports. Such run-up feeds an efficient two-dimensional hydrodynamicmodel that allows the characterization of the inundation inland. Using scenarios that combine regionalprojections of sea-level rise with extreme events, the proposed methodology has been applied to thecoast of Asturias (North of Spain).