@article{10902/39116,
year = {2025},
month = {9},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10902/39116},
abstract = {Due to the connection between atmospheric conditions and the marine climate, previous studies proposed the use of atmospheric data as a predictor to estimate the total water level at the coast. However, none of the previous applications considered the effect that a large and shallow continental shelf may have on the propagation of water level variables, such as the storm surge. The shallow bathymetry facilitates the occurrence of coastal trapped waves, and the storm surge signal may present a strong component
generated in remote regions. This phenomenon must be considered when defining the atmospheric predictor in these areas. This work presents a methodology to define the best atmospheric predictor to describe waves, storm surge and total water level in this particular kind of coasts. The method was applied in a location on the southern coast of Brazil (Southwest Atlantic), where the effect of the shallow bathymetry in the storm surge was previously observed. A statistical relationship between the atmospheric
predictor and water level variables at three coastal points was established to assess its ability to estimate atmospheric-induced water levels and their components. High Pearson correlation coefficients (r > 0.78 for all variables) and errors comparable to those obtained by traditional numerical methods demonstrate the skill of the predictor to describe the variables related to the water level at the coast. The implications of the atmospheric predictor extend beyond water level estimation, including several applications. Some of these applications are shown here, such as the characterisation of average and extreme marine climate and the assessment of climate-induced variability.},
organization = {: This work was supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES)—Finance code 001 through grant 88887.145393/2017-00. F.J.M. acknowledges the partial funds from projects CE4Wind (CPP2022-010118 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y Unión Europea-Next GenerationEU/PRTR), Perfect-Storm (2023/TCN/003—Financiado por el Gobierno de Cantabria/FEDER, UE), MyFlood (PLEC2022-009362—MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 y Unión Europea Next GenerationEU/PRTR) and HyBay (PID2022-141181OB-I00, Spanish Ministry MCIN). A.H.F.K. acknowledges the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPQ) for the financial support through processes 302238/2022-0 and 301597/2018-9.},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
publisher = {International Journal of Climatology, 2025, 45(11), e8935},
title = {An atmospheric predictor to estimate the atmospherically induced water Level at coasts with a shallow continental shelf},
author = {Gomes da Silva, Paula and Borato, Luana and Härter Fetter Filho, Antonio Fernando and Méndez Incera, Fernando Javier and Fontoura Klein, Antonio Henrique da},
}