@article{10902/39066,
year = {2025},
month = {2},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10902/39066},
abstract = {Temporal compound events (TCEs), such as the consecutive occurrence of two complementary extremes of the hydrological spectrum (floods and droughts), exhibit a volatile hydrological cycle that exacerbate the challenges associated with water resources management. This study makes use of bias-corrected climate models output from three modeling experiments (CMIP6, CORDEX, and CORDEX-CORE), to examine moderate to extreme wet and dry events and their temporal compounding over the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB), under low, medium, and high emission scenarios for two future periods (2040?2059 and 2080?2099). Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used to quantify the meteorological wet and dry events that are the main driver of the hydrologic floods and droughts. The two types of TCEs considered in the current study are wet-to-dry (W-to-D) events and dry-to-wet (D-to-W) events in the adjacent month. Results indicate that (1) under warming conditions, wet and dry events are expected to become more frequent and severe whereas duration of the events exhibits distinct change signals depending on the specific location. (2) The basin is more prone to D-to-W TCEs dominated in the southwest of the region, which was not found to be hotspot historically neither for dry nor for wet extreme events. (3) CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE ensembles show varying climate change signals with no specific spatial pattern whereas the CMIP6 ensemble shows stronger change signals and divides the region into two distinct parts, i.e., northeast and southwest.},
organization = {Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. The first author as a PhD student received funding from the Cooperation Agreement PFK PhD program 2019–2022 “Partnership for Knowledge-Platform 2: Health and WASH (WAter Sanitation and good Hygiene)” of the AICS-Italian Agency for Development Cooperation to attend higher education programs in Italy in favor of non-Italian citizens. The first author also thanks the Erasmus Training ship Program which allowed a research stay of 3 months at the University of Cantabria, Spain. A.C. acknowledges support from Project COMPOUND (TED2021-131334A-I00) funded by MCIU/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR.},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
publisher = {Regional Environmental Change, 2025, 25(1), 33},
title = {Changes in the probability of temporally compound wet and dry events in a warmer world: case study in the Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia},
author = {Ansari, Rubina and Casanueva Vicente, Ana and Liaqat, Muhammad Usman and Grossi, Giovanna},
}