@article{10902/37169,
year = {2025},
month = {5},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10902/37169},
abstract = {We investigate the skill of the fully initialized decadal forecasting system EC-Earth3 in reforecasting the semiannual occurrence frequencies of synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation types in the extratropics. Six-hourly sea-level pressure data from 10 model integrations of the dcppA-hindcast experiment are transformed into discrete circulation-type time series using the Jenkinson-Collison approach. The frequencies of these types are then compared to those derived from a reference reanalysis. The resulting skill is assessed and compared to that of a 10-member ensemble run with historical forcing to evaluate the added value of initialization. In the Pacific-North American sector, both the skill and added value are significant for the December-to-May season of the first forecast year. In the Southern Hemisphere, significant results are found for the same season through the second forecast year and also for the June-to-November season of the first forecast year. Significant signal-to-noise paradox situations are virtually absent in the analyses conducted here.},
organization = {This work has received funding from theEuropean Union's Horizon Europeresearch and innovation programme undergrant agreement No 101081555(IMPETUS4CHANGE). SBacknowledges support by the SpanishMITECO and European CommissionNextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094), through CSIC's PTI‐Clima. ECacknowledges support from GrantPRE2021‐097646, funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ESF+},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
publisher = {Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, 52(10), e2024GL114176},
title = {Predictability of semiannual atmospheric circulation type frequencies in the extratropics using the EC-Earth3 decadal forecasting system},
author = {Brands, Swen Franz and Cimadevilla Álvarez, Ezequiel and Fernández Fernández, Jesús (matemático)},
}