@article{10902/36471,
year = {2025},
month = {6},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10902/36471},
abstract = {Robust and reliable models are needed to understand how coastlines will evolve over the coming decades, driven by both natural variability and climate change. This study evaluated how accurately five popular 'reduced-complexity' models replicate multi-decadal shoreline change at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, a sandy embayment in Sydney, Australia. Measured shoreline positions derived from approximately monthly field surveys were used for 20-year calibration and 20-year validation periods. The models performed similarly on average but with large variability between transects. The set-up of several models was modified to compensate for their sensitivity to imperfect input wave data, and further site-specific improvements were identified. Capturing interannual to decadal-scale variability in cross-shore and longshore dynamics at this site was challenging for all five models. Models appeared to aggregate key processes at this timescale into parameter values rather than representing them directly. This suggests time-varying parameters or changes to model structure may be necessary for decadal-scale simulations.},
organization = {Oxana Repina acknowledges the support of an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship, as well as the resources and services provided by the University of Wollongong partner share of the NCI, which is supported by the Australian Government. Iñaki de Santiago acknowledges the support of the KOSTARISK joint laboratory (funded by AZTI, UPPA and RPT), Regions4Climate project (Horizon Europe, DOI: 10.3030/101093873) and the Urban Klima 2050–LIFE 18 IPC 000001 project (European Union's LIFE program). Camilo Jaramillo (C.J.) acknowledges the support of the ThinkInAzul programme, supported by MCIN/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación with funding from the European Union NextGeneration EU (PRTR-C17.I1) and by Comunidad de Cantabria. C.J. has also been supported by a Margarita Salas post-doctoral fellowship, funded by the European Union-NextGenerationEU, Ministry of Universities, and Recovery and Resilience Facility, through a call from the University of Cantabria. Kristen D. Splinter acknowledges support from an ARC Future Fellowship (FT220100009). This work is a contribution to the IGCP Project 725 ‘Forecasting Coastal Change’. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.},
publisher = {Elsevier},
publisher = {Coastal Engineering, 2025, 199, 104738},
title = {Evaluating five shoreline change models against 40 years of field survey data at an embayed sandy beach},
author = {Repina, Oxana and Carvalho, Rafael C. and Coco, Giovanni and Álvarez Antolínez, José Antonio and De Santiago, Iñaki and Harley, Mitchell D. and Jaramillo Cardona, Camilo and Splinter, Kristen D. and Vitousek, Sean and Woodroffe, Colin D.},
}